EVENT ARCHIVE

The April Dryline Outbreak

Forty-one tornado reports in nine hours, a dryline that sharpened two counties east of guidance, and a nocturnal QLCS that would not quit.

APRIL 3–4, 2026 · SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS · FINAL VERDICT: CLOSE

Updates

Newest updates on top. Timestamps on everything. If the situation changes, this page changes with it — that's the whole point.

2026-04-04 04:00
Line finally exits. Forty-one reports, no fatalities, and a lot of people who took the warnings seriously. That is the only stat that matters.
2026-04-03 23:10
Discrete mode is over. Everything is congealing into a line and the tornado threat shifts to brief spin-ups embedded in it.
2026-04-03 20:45
Third supercell in ninety minutes goes tornado-warned. The dryline mixed east faster than any run had it.
2026-04-03 16:00
Coverage opens. Cap is thin, shear is there, and the dryline is the whole story.

The autopsy

What was forecast, what actually happened, and what the gap teaches us. Every event gets one, especially the humbling ones.

Called the outbreak, missed the placement by about 70 miles east because the dryline mixed further than guidance. Called the mode transition to a line within an hour. Graded CLOSE rather than HIT because a 70-mile placement error is the difference between watching a storm and being in one, and I do not get to round that away.