The call
What's going to happen, in one paragraph, no hedging.
Discrete supercells fire on the dryline between 4 and 7pm, and at least two of them go tornadic before the line congeals after dark.
The why
The setup, the models, and what they agree on.
3,500 J/kg of CAPE, 55 knots of effective shear, and a dryline sharpening in exactly the place it usually sharpens. Two of three convection-allowing models broke out storms. I went with the two.
What would change my mind
The specific things I'm watching that could flip this forecast.
The cap. I said out loud that the cap would break by 4pm and I was wrong by roughly forever. The 700mb warm nose was two degrees stronger than sampled and nothing ever went up.
Why it missed
I weighted the two models that agreed with the outcome I wanted and discounted the one that kept the cap intact. That is not analysis, that is wishcasting with extra steps. The fix is mechanical: when the models split, the capped solution gets equal weight until a sounding says otherwise.