The call
What's going to happen, in one paragraph, no hedging.
One single-band event, west-southwest flow, and it does not move. Two to three inches an hour for eleven hours over the same three towns, and everybody four miles away sees blue sky and thinks we all lost it.
The why
The setup, the models, and what they agree on.
850mb flow held within eight degrees of the long-lake axis in every member, the inversion sat near 12,000 feet, and the delta-T ran 21C. That combination makes one band and pins it.
What would change my mind
The specific things I'm watching that could flip this forecast.
A ten-degree veer in the 850 flow would have swept the band 25 miles north and turned this into a nothing event. It never veered.